Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer supports unification or the current situation. They writes two pieces that strive for impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a negligent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has something to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
